DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled a scenario analysis that investigates the potential impact of a renewed shock to Russian outbound tourism on inbound travel patterns throughout Europe and the eastern Mediterranean. This analysis is part of DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator and utilizes the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) Economic Impact Report for 2025. The study comes in the wake of significant disruptions to Russian outbound travel following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which led to sanctions, airspace restrictions, and payment challenges. These disruptions have already seen Russian leisure travel divert from European Union (EU) destinations, with countries like Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt absorbing much of this shift. EU countries formerly popular with Russian tourists have experienced a decline of over seventy percent since 2022.
The new analysis models the effects of removing the remaining exposure to Russian tourism in a potential second wave of disruptions. This could be driven by factors such as tighter sanctions, further payment system constraints, depreciation of the ruble, or additional closures to indirect travel routes. The Crisis Impact Simulator envisions a scenario where Russian outbound travel might decrease by twenty to thirty-five percent to specific destinations over a year. It categorizes the exposure into three main areas: EU destinations still relying on Russian tourists, Mediterranean locales dependent on package holidays and charter services, and absorber markets like Türkiye, where the focus shifts to substituting Russian tourists with other market sources.
The simulator’s vulnerability assessment highlights the most at-risk operators, including charter-dependent package operators, all-inclusive coastal resorts during off-peak seasons, and destination management companies with a heavy reliance on Russian-language tour groups. Vulnerability is calculated based on inbound share data, and an AI component provides narrative context for these figures. To mitigate potential impacts, the simulator suggests strategies such as diversifying source markets to include countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council and India, repositioning products to attract European markets, and implementing currency-corridor hedging for businesses with substantial ruble-based cash flows.
In addition to this analysis, DataGreat offers the Risk Radar module, which evaluates 42 destinations weekly across six tourism risk categories, including source-market concentration. Together, these tools enable analysts to not only identify exposed destinations but also to understand the specific implications of potential shocks on various segments. DataGreat plans to release detailed destination-specific insights from the simulator on an ongoing basis until 2026, with credentialed media having the option to request comprehensive simulator data for any of the 42 destinations covered.
DataGreat is operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., based in Edirne, Türkiye. The platform is built on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, encompassing 42 countries and 26,880 verified data points. Its suite of products includes tools such as a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and the Crisis Impact Simulator, designed to offer comprehensive insights into the global tourism landscape.
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