Moscow’s Message to Washington: No New Arms Race, For Now

Russia sent a clear message to Washington on Monday: it is not interested in an immediate arms race, for now. President Vladimir Putin announced a one-year voluntary extension of Russia’s compliance with the nuclear limits set by the expired New START treaty, a move aimed at preserving strategic stability.
Putin, speaking at a Security Council meeting, said the decision was made to “ensure an acceptable level of predictability and restraint.” The New START treaty, a pact from the Obama-Medvedev era, capped deployed nuclear warheads at 1,550 and delivery systems at 700. Though Russia suspended the treaty in 2023, it will now continue to honor these figures.
This self-imposed restraint is not unconditional. Putin explicitly stated that the policy’s continuation depends on reciprocal action from the United States. He warned that any American steps that “undermine or disrupt the existing balance of deterrence” would render Russia’s commitment void, effectively daring the U.S. to make the next move.
The Kremlin is also casting this as a potential de-escalation tool. Putin suggested that this gesture could help foster a climate for renewed strategic dialogue between the two nuclear powers, provided that other efforts are made to normalize the broader relationship. It is an offer to talk, backed by a tangible action.
The one-year commitment gives all parties breathing room but resolves none of the underlying issues. It is a temporary measure, with Putin reserving the right to make a new decision “based on our analysis of the situation” in a year’s time, leaving the long-term nuclear balance uncertain.