Security Over Sustainability: How Geopolitics is Hurting the Net-Zero Push

A global pivot towards national energy security, fueled by geopolitical conflicts, is actively undermining the pursuit of net-zero emissions, according to a powerful assessment by BP. The energy major has revised its long-term forecasts upward for both oil and gas consumption, acknowledging that the world is slowing its pace toward clean energy and is therefore unlikely to hit the 2050 climate target.
BP’s annual outlook presents a significant shift in long-term expectations. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to be 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the prior estimate of 77 million b/d. Natural gas demand is similarly expected to hold high at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, the forecast for peak oil demand has been delayed by five years, now expected to hit 103 million b/d in 2030, extending the reliance on crude.
BP’s chief economist emphasizes that tensions—including the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and trade tariffs—are compelling nations to prioritize domestic energy supplies. While this push for self-sufficiency might create ‘electrostates’ by accelerating domestic low-carbon power, the report highlights the counter-risk: an increased preference for domestically produced fossil fuels over imported energy sources, acting as a major drag on global decarbonization.
The report delivers a critical warning regarding climate thresholds. BP’s modeling shows that the current energy trajectory risks exceeding the 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. This extended delay, the company cautions, will raise the economic and social costs required for future climate stabilization. For the world to meet net-zero 2050, BP states that oil demand needs to aggressively drop to about 35 million b/d by that year, a massive undertaking.
Despite the necessary and rapid deployment of renewable technologies—which are set to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035, with China contributing half of that—oil will remain the largest single source of primary global energy supply, accounting for 30% in 2035. Renewables are projected to rise from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035, but are not expected to surpass oil until the end of the 2040s, illustrating the deep structural inertia in the global energy system.